Nuuk, Greenland – Greenland’s most popular social media influencer announced her political bid just weeks ahead of Tuesday’s elections as she felt the winds of change blowing across the vast Arctic island.
“This is truly a historic moment. I feel like we are finally voting on independence. This has primarily happened because the US is showing greater interest in Greenland,” Qupanuk Olsen, the 39-year-old running with the pro-independence opposition party Naleraq in the parliamentary vote, told Al Jazeera. “It’s a huge wake-up call.”
Usually, she spends her time updating her hundreds of thousands of social media followers about everyday life in Greenland, from revealing how much a pair of Sketchers costs at a mall in Nuuk, the capital, to the type of seafood eaten on festive days.
To Olsen and many other Greenlanders, Tuesday’s vote feels like the most critical election in the territory’s recent history.
Greenland has captured the world’s attention since United States President Donald Trump doubled down on his intentions to absorb the island, an uncomfortable prospect that has renewed a long-running debate over independence from Denmark.
While the level of self-governance has expanded over the years, full sovereignty remains a distant yet powerful aspiration for many Greenlanders – and the issue is at the heart of the snap election that was called after Trump underscored his ambitions.
In the run-up to the vote, Nuuk has been overrun with international journalists taking an unusually keen interest in Greenlandic politics.
Among the questions being continually asked: Will Greenland take concrete steps towards breaking away from Denmark, or will economic realities keep it tethered to Copenhagen?
“I don’t think full independence will happen anytime soon – it has always been a factor in Greenlandic elections. However, I don’t see it happening quickly, even though some political parties are pushing for it. Maybe in 20 to 30 years,” Maria Ackren, a professor of political science at Greenland University, told Al Jazeera.
“Almost every party in Greenland supports independence. However, the timing, conditions, and pace of the process vary.”
An immense Arctic island of just 56,000 people, Greenland has been a semi-autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark since 1979. Until 1953, it was a Danish colony.
Under a 2009 home-rule agreement, Greenland has full control over its domestic affairs but still relies heavily on Denmark, which maintains authority over foreign policy and defence.
Denmark provides Greenland with an annual subsidy of about $570m, covering nearly a third of the island’s budget.
“It is about time that we take a step forward and shape our own future, including deciding who we collaborate closely with and who our trade connections will be. Our relationships with other countries cannot happen solely through Denmark,” said Mute B Egede, Greenland’s premier and leader of the pro-independence democratic socialist Inuit Ataqatigiit (IA) party, in his New Year’s speech.
Some parties are calling for Greenland to hold a referendum on a specific article in the home-rule law within the next four years. If the result is a yes, negotiations on independence and statehood would begin with Denmark.
Recent polls suggest a large majority of Greenlanders do not want to join the US and most back the idea of independence.
One survey showed that 70 percent of Danes believe that if Greenland leaves the Danish Realm, the annual subsidy – the so-called “block grant” – should be discontinued.
Navigating the snow-covered streets of Nuuk, a Greenlandic Trump supporter admired the red MAGA hat he placed on top of the dashboard of his car.
“It’s the original one – from back in 2016. It has been in my car for nine years,” Jorgen Boassen told Al Jazeera proudly.
He works with a Republican-affiliated organisation called American Daybreak, which aims to increase the US’s influence in Greenland.
Previously, Trump has refused to rule out military or economic coercion to seize Greenland.
In recent days, the US leader has reiterated his wish to snap up the island.
“I think we are going to get it. One way or another,” Trump said in an address to Congress.
The day after, Prime Minister Egede posted on Facebook, “We do not want to be Americans, nor Danes – we are Greenlanders. The Americans and their leader must understand that.”
In 2019, when Trump, then president, suggested that the US should buy Greenland from Denmark, he called it a “strategic real estate deal”, angering both Copenhagen and Nuuk.
Greenland is geographically part of the North American continent but has been culturally connected with Europe for many centuries.
“The Greenlandic parties have yet to present a clear and concrete vision for independence. It remains unclear exactly what they mean by it. However, it is evident that Donald Trump’s interest has given them a sense of momentum, which they are using to put pressure on Danish politicians,” said Ackren, the professor at Greenland University.
Since Christmas, Trump has repeatedly claimed that the US should seek greater control over the island’s resources and expand its Arctic military presence; Greenland is already home to a large US base.
In January, the president’s son, Donald Trump Jr, visited. While officially described as a private trip, the tour appeared to be a well-planned social media stunt aimed at putting pressure on Greenland and Denmark.
Boassen said he helped organise the controversial visit, footage of which showed some Greenlanders wearing MAGA hats. Danish media later claimed some of those donning the red caps were bribed.
“I am not interested in Greenland becoming an American state,” said Boassen. “But I want a larger American military presence here. Denmark has not done what they promised regarding military build-up, and we can’t solely rely on Europe any more.”
Analysts believe Trump’s administration views Greenland, which has immense untapped resources such as rare-earth minerals, oil and gas, as a strategic asset – a key Arctic territory as geopolitical tensions between China, Russia and the US are heating up.
While local politicians have insisted Greenland is open for business, Greenlanders are certainly not interested in a new colonial ruler.
As for Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, he has stated several times that the future of Greenland is solely up to the Greenlanders to decide.
