As President Trump looks north and repeatedly presses his case to absorb Canada as the “51st state,” politically minded Democrats who are otherwise outraged by almost everything else about his agenda find themselves contemplating a potential electoral boon should it ever happen.
Few in Washington take the prospect all that seriously, of course. Canada has made clear that it has no interest in joining the United States, and Mr. Trump seems unlikely to send in the 82nd Airborne Division to force the matter. But if the idea appeals to Mr. Trump’s grandiose sense of himself as an empire-building historic figure, it could also undercut his own party’s prospects.
Canada, a land of socialized health care, friendly immigration policies and a commitment to protecting the environment, is not exactly MAGA territory, after all. Making it a state, according to some early studies of popular opinion and voting patterns, would almost surely cost Republicans control of the House, trim their majority in the Senate and make it harder for them to win the White House in future elections.
“I can’t believe I’m saying this, but I strongly agree with Donald Trump,” said former Representative Steve Israel of New York, who headed the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “Canada is largely left of center, and making it the 51st state means more Democrats in Congress and Electoral College votes, not to mention providing universal health care and combating climate change.”
Whether Mr. Trump understands that absorbing Canada might be self-destructive for the Republican Party is not clear. He has never been particularly engaged by party building, nor demonstrated much concern about what happens politically after he leaves office. During the campaign last year, he told Christian supporters that “you won’t have to vote anymore” after electing him in November.
“Of course if it were to happen, it would be a political boon for Democrats,” said Douglas Heye, a longtime Republican strategist. “But that’s not really even part of the discussion. Trump depends on the loud noises getting a reaction — and his batting record there is pretty high.”
Indeed, Mr. Trump’s talk of annexing Canada appears to be a way of trolling his northern neighbors as part of his pressure for trade and other concessions. It has succeeded in getting under their skin. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada told a group of business leaders in comments that leaked out that he did not consider it a joke but in fact “a real thing.”
All 13 of Canada’s provincial and territorial premiers traveled to Washington this past week as part of a joint mission to strengthen Canada-U.S. relations and defuse the trade war Mr. Trump has begun. After the meeting, James Blair, a deputy White House chief of staff, said online that when it comes to Mr. Trump’s comments on Canada becoming the 51st state, officials there should “take what he says at face value.”
But the notion of Canada as a state, however farcical and unlikely, has intrigued the political class and been the source of parlor games in Washington. With 40 million people and 3.8 million square miles, Canada would instantly become the largest and most populous state in the union, beating out all other 50 states combined in land mass and slightly topping California in population.
Canada would also be even bluer than California politically, judging by past trends. Nearly two-thirds of Canadians, or 64 percent, told pollsters that they would have voted for Kamala Harris while just 21 percent said they would have supported Mr. Trump, according to a survey by the polling firm Leger.
If Canada had 55 Electoral College votes based on its population, that would have boosted Ms. Harris’s total from 226 to 281. Mr. Trump would still have won with 312 Electoral College votes. But such a change would leave less margin for future Republicans who would start each race assuming an additional 55 Electoral College votes in the Democratic base.
The bigger impact would be on the House. John A. Tures, a professor of political science at LaGrange College in Georgia, analyzed what that would mean if the 10 Canadian provinces were collectively brought in while the three Canadian territories were treated by the United States as it treats its own territories like American Samoa, Guam, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, which have no votes for president.
In that case, Republicans would lose their narrow majority in the House, according to Mr. Tures’s calculations, which were based on the assumption that the number of seats would be increased to accommodate the new population, as was done regularly during the 19th century.
Instead of winning 220 to 215, as they did in November, Republicans would have handed the gavel to Democrats, who would have a majority of 246 to 234. The numbers would be different if the current size of the House were maintained and its 435 seats simply redistributed based on population, as has been done over the past century, but the trend would be similar.
If Canada were admitted as a single state, as Mr. Trump seems to envision, then its two Senate seats would presumably go to the Democrats. The Republicans’ current 53 to 47 majority would be trimmed to 53 to 49, not enough to change control of the chamber but enough to make it harder for Mr. Trump to govern.
If each of the Canadian provinces were admitted as separate states, then Mr. Tures figured that five new Senate seats would go to Republicans from the most conservative parts of Canada (two from Alberta, two from Saskatchewan and one from Manitoba) and 15 from the other provinces would go to Democrats, flipping control.
His forecast, of course, is founded on the assumption that every Conservative Party vote in Canada would go to Mr. Trump’s Republicans and that the Democrats would be able to build a coalition of the several Canadian parties to the left of the Conservatives, both of which are logical if not certain inferences. But it gives a sense of how the political landscape would shift in the United States.
Mr. Tures, who wrote about an earlier version of his analysis, said he has gotten feedback since then from Canadians. “They aren’t happy with Trump’s tactics and threats, but some joked that they would appreciate the opportunity to take over our politics by giving votes to the Democratic Party to make us more them, politically,” he said.
It could, however, become even more complicated. Douglas B. Sosnik, a longtime Democratic strategist, said it was possible that Quebec, which has already come close to seceding from Canada over the past few decades, would be so disturbed at annexation by the United States that it would declare its independence at last.
“The Democrats would control Vancouver and Ontario province, but that’s it with the rest of what is left of Canada supporting the Republicans,” he said.
None of the provinces actually want to join the United States, though. Among all Canadian adults, just 15 percent support becoming part of their southern neighbor, while 77 percent oppose it, according to a YouGov survey. Even among Conservatives, just 23 percent favor the idea while 73 percent do not.
So based on that, at least, Mr. Trump should not get his hopes up — and neither should Democrats. But it does not mean that they cannot dream.
“Canada is blue,” Mr. Israel said. “We’ll take all the help President Trump wants to give us.”
