As the first phase of the cease-fire between Israel and Hamas winds down this weekend, the future of the truce remains murky. What happens in a key strip of land along the border between Egypt and Gaza in the coming week could provide an indication of how things will move forward.
Israel is supposed to begin withdrawing troops on Sunday from the border area, known as the Philadelphi Corridor, and leave it completely by the following weekend. Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, has long said that Israeli control there is a core security national interest, injecting uncertainty over this step.
What is the Philadelphi Corridor?
An eight-mile strip of land that divides Gaza from Egypt, the Philadelphi Corridor emerged as a major sticking point in cease-fire talks between Israel and Hamas. The border, which divides the city of Rafah, was set up under the Egypt-Israel peace treaty of 1979.
After Hamas seized full control of Gaza in 2007, its fighters and officials oversaw the enclave’s border with Egypt and the Rafah crossing, the only exit from Gaza to the outside world not directly overseen by Israel.
Israeli officials have argued that Hamas smuggled in arms and materiel for its fighters from across the Egyptian border. In September, Mr. Netanyahu called the Philadelphi Corridor “Hamas’s oxygen valve.”
In May, Israeli troops advanced along the corridor as part of the military’s assault on Rafah. For months afterward, Mr. Netanyahu argued that leaving the area would endanger Israeli security by allowing Hamas to rearm.
But at the same time, Mr. Netanyahu committed to withdrawing from the border area as part of the cease-fire.
What is supposed to happen this week?
Israeli negotiators are in Cairo for meetings with Egyptian and Qatari mediators to discuss the next steps in the truce. Hamas officials visited the Egyptian capital last week for their own deliberations.
According to the three-part cease-fire deal between Israel and Hamas, Israeli forces are set to begin withdrawing from the Philadelphi Corridor six weeks into the truce, coinciding with the end of the first phase of the agreement. That would be on Saturday.
The two sides concluded the final hostage-for-prisoner swaps in the first phase of the agreement on Thursday. They have yet to negotiate the next steps, which would include a permanent end to Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza and a full withdrawal of Israeli forces from the territory.
Israel is supposed to leave the corridor by the end of next week, according to the cease-fire deal. The vacuum could be filled by Hamas, which has been reasserting its power in Gaza since the truce went into effect in mid-January.
Will Israel actually withdraw?
Israel agreed to leave the border area by the 50th day of the truce, which would be in early March. Refusing to abide by that commitment would be seen as a major violation and add even more uncertainty to the already precarious truce.
But if the withdrawal goes ahead on schedule, that could add momentum to efforts by mediators to secure the next steps in the cease-fire.
Both Israel and Hamas have reasons to avoid another round of fighting, at least for now. Hamas wants to give its forces a chance to recuperate, while Israel wants to bring home the remaining hostages.
But the prospect of a comprehensive agreement between Israel and Hamas still seems remote.
Israel has conditioned a comprehensive agreement on the end of Hamas’s control in Gaza and the demilitarization of the enclave, both of which Hamas has largely rejected. Israel’s leaders vowed to destroy Hamas in response to the deadly Oct. 7, 2023, attacks on southern Israel, but failed to eliminate the group in Gaza despite 15 months of relentless fighting that devastated the territory and killed tens of thousands of Palestinians.
