As Japan’s prime minister prepares for his first meeting with President Trump, he is hoping to make a personal connection with the leader of the superpower on which his country depends both economically and militarily. But in the unpredictable Trump White House, even a simple meet-and-greet might be a risky gamble.
The summit between Mr. Trump and Japan’s prime minister, Shigeru Ishiba, which is scheduled for Friday, is the result of months of behind-the-scenes efforts by a wide range of Japanese: not just diplomats and lawmakers, but also one of the country’s richest investors and the widow of an assassinated former prime minister.
When he arrives at the White House, Mr. Ishiba will most likely seek reassurances that Mr. Trump won’t target Japan in a trade war or abandon America’s post-1945 security guarantees at a time when his nation faces a muscular China and a nuclear-armed North Korea.
In exchange, the Japanese prime minister is expected to come with concessions that could include promises to buy more American weapons or energy, invest in U.S.-based artificial intelligence and share more of the defense burden in the Asia-Pacific region.
“This summit will be the moment of truth,” said Narushige Michishita, a professor of security affairs at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies in Tokyo. “Does Mr. Trump view Japan as an indispensable partner in the Asia-Pacific, or are we just another counterpart across the bargaining table?”
So far, Japan’s name hasn’t come up when Mr. Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on many other major U.S. allies and trading partners. The two leaders seemed to get off to a good start when Mr. Ishiba called Mr. Trump in November to congratulate him on his election victory.
“It was my first time speaking to him, but he seemed friendly,” Mr. Ishiba told reporters. “I got the impression that he was someone I could speak honestly with.”
However, former diplomats say that asking the mercurial U.S. president to observe the status quo will be a tall order. These are still the early days in the administration of a transactional president who is eager to show results to his supporters.
“Ishiba is taking a risk,” said Glen S. Fukushima, a former trade official and ex-president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Japan. “The more time he spends with Trump, the more chance that Trump will make new demands.”
Then there’s the possibility of what some analysts now call a “Gaza surprise,” a reference to the summit this week between Mr. Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel, when the U.S. president blindsided the world by proposing a takeover of Palestinian territory.
Ahead of the Japanese-U.S. summit, Mr. Ishiba has prepared by gathering an informal “Trump strategy council” of top officials from across his government, who gamed out the possible demands that the president might make and how Japan should respond, according to Japanese news media.
Mr. Ishiba has also tried to learn from one of his predecessors, Shinzo Abe, a long-serving prime minister who was shot and killed in 2022 after leaving office. Mr. Abe used face-to-face meetings to build rapport with Mr. Trump during the first Trump administration.
One of Mr. Abe’s strategies was to come bearing gifts. When he became the first world leader to meet with the newly elected Mr. Trump in 2016 in Trump Tower, Mr. Abe presented his host with a gold-plated golf club. At a summit three years later, Mr. Abe brought a bigger present: a promise to buy 105 American F-35 fighter planes worth billions of dollars.
On Monday, Mr. Ishiba said he planned to talk with Mr. Trump about joint development of artificial intelligence. He made the comments after meeting with Sam Altman of OpenAI and Masayoshi Son, a Japanese tech investor who in December stood next to Mr. Trump to pledge $100 billion in investments to create 100,000 jobs in the United States.
Mr. Ishiba is also expected to emphasize major increases in security spending, which could lead to additional purchases of U.S.-made weapons. Japan plans to expand the size of its defense budget by 65 percent in the five years ending in 2027.
Still, Mr. Ishiba’s efforts to follow Mr. Abe’s playbook have not always gone well. After Mr. Trump’s re-election last year, Mr. Ishiba tried to meet him, only to be turned down on the grounds that the president-elect wasn’t meeting world leaders right away.
Japan turned to Mr. Abe’s widow, Akie Abe, who attended Mr. Trump’s inauguration ceremony as a guest of the first lady, Melania Trump. Mr. Trump referred to his personal tie with the deceased Mr. Abe when mentioning the coming summit with Mr. Ishiba.
“Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was a very close friend of mine,” Mr. Trump told reporters last Friday. “What happened to him was very sad, one of the saddest things that ever happened, but they’re coming to talk to me, so I’m looking forward to it.”
There have been concerns that Mr. Ishiba won’t be able to replicate Mr. Abe’s personal chemistry with Mr. Trump. While Mr. Abe was an avid golfer who played with Mr. Trump at a club in Japan, Mr. Ishiba favors interests like building plastic models.
Kiuko Notoya and Hisako Ueno contributed reporting.
