Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang holds a Blackwell GeForce RTX 50 Series GPU (L) and a RTX 5000 laptop as he delivers a keynote address at the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas, Nevada on January 6, 2025.
Patrick T. Fallon | Afp | Getty Images
Nvidia reports fourth-quarter earnings on Wednesday after the bell.
Here’s what Wall Street is expecting, according to LSEG consensus estimates:
EPS: $0.84, adjustedRevenue: $38.04 billion
Nvidia’s earnings report on Wednesday will put the finishing touches on one of the most remarkable years from a large company ever. Not only do analysts expect a 72% increase in revenue in the quarter ended in January, but sales for the full fiscal year are expected to more than double to nearly $130 billion.
The company’s growth streak has been driven by the fact that its data center graphics processing units, or GPUs, are essential hardware for building and deploying artificial intelligence applications like OpenAI’s ChatGPT.
In the past two years, Nvidia stock has risen more than 440%, and it’s been the most valuable U.S. company at times with a market cap over $3 trillion.
But the stocks’ meteoric growth has slowed in recent months — it’s trading at the same price as it did last October. Slowing the company’s appreciation are questions from investors about what Nvidia does next, and if it can keep growing.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang will get an opportunity on Wednesday to answer lingering questions from investors and analysts about what the AI boom looks like two years in.
In particular, Nvidia investors are worried about any signs that the company’s most important customers — hyperscale cloud companies — might be tightening their belts after years of big capital expenditures. They were also shaken by a Chinese AI model, DeepSeek’s R1, which challenged assumptions that more Nvidia chips would be needed to build smarter AI.
There’s also a possibility that attention on DeepSeek could prompt U.S. officials to further restrict Nvidia’s exports of AI chips to China on national security grounds. Nvidia is already barred from shipping its most advanced AI chips to the region, and it makes specially limited versions of its chips specifically for China.
Additionally, investors will want to know how the Blackwell rollout is going after reports that distribution of some versions of Nvidia’s latest AI chip may be happening slower than previously expected due to heating and yield challenges.
Morgan Stanley analysts estimated this month that Microsoft will account for nearly 35% of spending in 2025 on Blackwell, Google is at 32.2%, Oracle at 7.4% and Amazon at 6.2%.
Last week, TD Cowen analysts said they had learned that Microsoft had canceled leases with private data center operators and had slowed its process of negotiating to enter into new leases. The report raised fears about the sustainability of AI infrastructure growth, of which a large portion of spending is on Nvidia’s chips.
Microsoft pushed back Monday, saying it still planned to spend $80 billion on infrastructure in 2025. Plus, most of Nvidia’s other key customers touted large investments. Alphabet is targeting $75 billion in capital expenditures this year, Meta will spend as much as $65 billion and Amazon is aiming to spend $100 billion.
“We have talked to industry participants over the weekend, and while it’s certainly possible that there are longer lead time changes relating to land, the Microsoft GPU demand has not changed,” wrote Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore in a note this week. He has a $152 price target on Nvidia stock.
Still, investors will be listening for any signs that Nvidia’s relationship with cloud companies remains strong. They’ll also be listening to Nvidia’s guidance for its fiscal 2026, and how much growth over last year’s elevated sales can be expected.
