So America’s at war — “Major U.S. strikes on Iran —” — or not. “Twelve-Day War is over.” But Israel is still at war. “Fifty-thousand Palestinians have been killed.” Wait, wait, wait! That’s the other war. “Hezbollah launched a deadly drone attack.” So how many wars are there? “The biggest loss of life in Israeli history.” “The Trump administration has bombed Iran.” “Airstrikes against Houthi targets.” “The Assad regime’s rule over Syria ended.” Does anyone know what they’re doing? “They don’t know what the [EXPLETIVE] they’re doing. Do you understand that?” If you zoom out, you’ll see that the Middle East, as we’ve known it for decades, has been completely smashed. But there is one person who could end the famine, halt the endless bombings, get us off the treadmill of death and actually broker peace. Who is it? “Donald Trump is the only person in the world who has enough leverage to break us out of this cycle.” Times Opinion writer Megan Stack lived in Jerusalem and Cairo. She reported from Gaza, and her work in Iran got her banned. She’s here today to act as our tour guide, to help us imagine what peace in the Middle East would look like. “Trump is dealing with a Middle East that’s completely different, even from a few years ago. It may not look like it, but actually I still see a path to peace. Trump just can’t repeat the same mistakes as his predecessors. They called for peace, but at the same time, they waged war.” They invaded countries, kicked out rulers, terrorized people with drones and bombs, all while pouring weapons into the region. “You can’t make war and peace at the same time and expect to make a difference.” OK, Megan, but isn’t that exactly what Trump is doing? “Well, that’s the thing. He called on Israel to end the war “Stop killing people” — and he promised to keep the U.S. out of new wars.” “He always wanted to go to war with people. I don’t want to go to war.” “And he did broker a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas.” “President-elect Trump is taking credit for the cease-fire and hostage deal.” “And he seemed willing to negotiate with anyone.” “A direct deal with Hamas.” “He’s actually the first U.S. president in generations that’s not unequivocally backing Israel.” “I’m not happy with Israel.” “Trump’s original instinct was correct, but then he strayed off the path. He suggested kicking all the Palestinians out of Gaza.” “The U.S. will take over the Gaza Strip.” “He knows people are starving in Gaza, but he hasn’t done anything to stop it.” “We’ve had some real progress.” “Then he bombed Iran.” “The strikes were a spectacular military success.” But can he still turn it around? “Realistically, none of these problems can be fixed in isolation. So crazy as it sounds, Trump has to do it all in one package. It’s kind of like when he talks about his ‘Big, Beautiful Bill.’” “Great Big, Beautiful Bill. Big, Beautiful Bill.” “He needs a big, beautiful, let’s call it, rebalancing.” First, Megan and I are going to show you what full-blown regional war could look like. Then Megan’s going to outline three steps Trump can use to make radical peace and maybe even get himself that thing he keeps talking about. “They don’t get the Nobel Prize to certain people. Give me a Nobel Peace Prize.” [LAUGHS]: “You should get the Nobel Prize. But I don’t care about that.” Now, there are a lot of players in the Middle East. But to grasp Megan’s solution, you just need to focus on four. “The Israelis, the Palestinians, the Iranians and the Saudis, because they fear each other, they generate a lot of violence.” Israelis fear more attacks from Palestinian militias, while Palestinians fear that Israel will occupy their lands forever. Israel feels that a nuclear-armed Iran would pose an existential threat. In return, Iran feels Israel’s powerful military and alliance with the U.S. is also an existential threat. Saudi Arabia, another U.S. ally, also has a rivalry with Iran. But does that make them friends with the Israelis? Not quite. Saudi Arabia won’t even recognize Israel as a legitimate state until Israel creates a path to statehood for the Palestinians. Since Israel refuses, they’re at an impasse. For years, these mutual threats left the region locked in a stalemate. But right now, Israel is dominating. It’s crushing its enemies — Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran. But what happens if Israel’s aggression just doesn’t stop? “Genocide in Gaza, war with Iran, regime change gone wrong, mass migration, even nuclear war.” That’s the worst-case scenario. But how can Donald Trump possibly avoid all that? “He can do it by tying together three deals.” Now, we know in reality they’ll be complex and difficult to negotiate, but it’s still worth sketching out their main points. They work by removing what these players fear. And here’s the good news. The first deal is the easiest one to make because Iran is not in a position to say no. “Israel has decimated Iran’s proxy terrorist networks, as well as their air defenses.” “Their economy’s in rough shape.” If Iran’s regime tries to make a nuclear weapon, Israel and maybe the U.S. will attack it again and possibly topple it. “Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. It’s very simple.” “We’re not going to let them.” But Iran can’t stall, either, because U.S. sanctions are crippling its economy. So Iran needs to make a deal. It could shutter its nuclear weapons program in exchange for the U.S. relieving some sanctions. That’s basically the deal they did with Obama in 2015. “I got to say, Iran has actually shown restraint after being repeatedly attacked.” “Fourteen missiles were shot at us the other day. They were very nice. They gave us warning.” “They’ve behaved in a relatively pragmatic way, and this is a version of Iran that Americans can work with. So it’s time to bring back an updated Obama deal, which was working pretty well.” But Megan, Israel hated that deal. Why would they ever be on board with that? “Israel will hate the deal, but Israel also needs the United States. And if Israel is undercutting Trump, he should be ready to reduce American support. Tough love is long overdue in this relationship.” So that’s Deal 1. Tough love is also how Trump gets to a second deal. As long as Israel keeps fighting the Palestinians, the Saudis won’t recognize Israel, and Iran may keep threatening it. So Trump needs Israel to stop fighting the Palestinians, and he can, by threatening to withhold the weapons Israel needs to keep fighting. “What is the U.S. getting from its relationship with Israel? There is no upside in funding an ethnic-cleansing campaign, if that’s all this is. Trump has real leverage. Withholding weapons should be enough to get Israel to make more serious compromises.” So here’s Deal 2. Trump continues to give Israel weapons only when Israel agrees to a cease-fire in Gaza, then enters real negotiations with the Palestinians. But again, how does Trump actually get Netanyahu on board? “Netanyahu must know that Israel’s becoming a pariah state. Even Netanyahu himself has been charged with crimes against humanity. Israel needs an exit ramp, and Trump can offer one.” If Trump can create just a little trust between the Israelis and Palestinians, he can unlock a historic Deal 3. “It’ll be a special day in the Middle East when Saudi Arabia joins us.” Ever since his first term, Trump has wanted to make peace between Saudi Arabia and Israel. But Saudi Arabia is holding out over two demands. One, it wants Israel to give the Palestinians a path to statehood. And, two, it wants more U.S. military protection because it feels threatened by Iran. Trump’s already got both things in Deals 1 and 2. The Israeli-Palestinian talks in Deal 2 should satisfy the Saudis’ first demand. And the Saudis don’t need this military protection because Trump shuttered Iran’s nuclear weapons program in Deal 1. So Deal 1 plus Deal 2 equals Deal 3, Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel and ties this whole new Middle East together. “Well, Saudi Arabia is kind of a linchpin in all of this. They sit in the middle and they want to be the Arab country. I think they’re dying to normalize relations with Israel. And let’s face it, Saudi Arabia is rich. So they could help rebuild Gaza and stand up for Palestinian interests.” In three deals, Trump can make everyone feel safer. It won’t fix every problem, but it puts the train on a far more stable track and breaks the cycle of violence. Perhaps then Trump can steer the United States out of the Middle East, a win for Trump and probably everyone. “If Trump really wants to be an America First president, we can’t be stuck in these endless conflicts in the Middle East.” Sealing three deals will require Trump to be very transactional, which suits him perfectly. “Deals work best when each side gets something it wants from the other.” Iran wants a stable economy, and the U.S. doesn’t want it to build a bomb, a win-win Trump should take, even if it angers the Iran hawks in the Republican Party. “Leverage, don’t make deals without it.” U.S. weapons give Trump a ton of leverage over Israel that he can use to stop the fighting, even if it upsets his friends. And finally — “Sometimes I settle for less than I sought, but in most cases, I still end up with what I want.” These deals put these governments and Trump in a position to make a lot of money. While these deals won’t solve every problem, they are a first step to creating real change in the Middle East. “When I was traveling through the Middle East, I was always frustrated by how the land is chopped up. These are some of the most ancient trade routes in the world, and yet people can’t easily travel across them anymore. You can’t go from Haifa to Beirut. You can’t go from Tel Aviv to Tehran or from Gaza to Alexandria. Just try to imagine if this part of the world could somehow get to European-style cohesion, there would be so much to gain, not just trade and tourism, but on the most human level.” That sounds great, Megan, but will it get Donald Trump his Nobel Peace Prize? “Yes, fine, give him the prize. Give him whatever he wants. If he can actually break us out of this cycle of violence, that is what the prize is for. And believe me, people have definitely won it for less.”
