Millions of voters across three European countries cast their ballots in an electoral “super Sunday” over the weekend amid fears of far-right gains, particularly in Romania and Poland. However, the centrists held their ground in the two European Union and NATO member nations bordering war-torn Ukraine, providing a boost to the West.
Portugal’s centre-right governing party also secured a parliamentary win, but the far right made record gains.
Brussels can breathe a cautious sigh of relief after pro-EU candidates emerged victorious in the three bellwether elections. But while the centre is holding for now, far-right populist forces continue to grow in all three countries, the latest in a string of far-right surges in Europe.
Last summer, EU elections witnessed a clear turn to the right in the European Parliament, shaking up governments across the 27-member bloc and leaving mainstream political parties at a crossroads. Despite “super Sunday” results, eurosceptic parties continue to garner support.
Romania
Romania’s presidential election concluded with a clear victory for centrist candidate Nicusor Dan, who secured 54 percent of the vote against nationalist rival George Simion’s 46 percent.
The closely watched contest, which has geopolitical implications for the EU, drew the country’s highest electoral turnout in 25 years, with about 65 percent of eligible voters casting their ballots.
The election was marked by a dramatic comeback for Dan, the 55-year-old mayor of Bucharest, who trailed in the early stages but surged ahead in the final days of the ballot.
Dan, a former mathematician, pledged to clamp down on corruption and support the EU and NATO.
Simion ran a campaign rooted in euroscepticism and nationalist rhetoric, pledging to halt military aid to Ukraine and overturn the ruling establishment in a style similar to United States President Donald Trump.
His early lead raised fears among liberal segments of the population, but as results came in, it became clear that voters had rallied behind Dan’s vision of a centrist Romania.
Coming on the heels of the annulment of a previous vote in December, due to alleged Russian interference, the stakes of Sunday’s election were very high.
Many saw the contest as a referendum on Romania’s future political direction and its role within the EU and NATO.
The high turnout reflected a pushback against rising right-wing populism, reinforcing Romania’s Western orientation at a time of regional instability.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen was quick to congratulate the pro-EU winner, saying Dan’s victory would help work towards “a strong Europe”.
Looking ahead, Dan plans to form a coalition with both centre-left and centre-right parties, aiming to stabilise the political landscape and deliver on his promises of reform.
Speaking to private television station Digi24, Dan said he wanted a new coalition government to include all four centre-right and centre-left parliamentary parties.
Poland
According to a second exit poll released late on Sunday night, Rafal Trzaskowski, a deputy leader of Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s centrist Civic Platform (PO) party, won 31.1 percent of the vote.
Karol Nawrocki of the conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party came in second, with 29.1 percent of the vote.
The vote was also a referendum on Tusk’s government, formed in December 2023 after ending the PiS’s eight-year rule, which was marked by undermining of the judiciary and the media.
If the election result – not expected until later today – goes as suggested by the exit poll, Trzaskowski and Nawrocki will compete in a second-round run-off on June 1, with neither winning more than 50 percent in the first round.
Meanwhile, other candidates in the first round – including Slawomir Mentzen from the far-right Confederation Party and Magdalena Biejat from the Lewica (The Left) party – will be eliminated.
“There is a lot, a lot, of work ahead of us, and we need determination,” Trzaskowski told supporters on Sunday night.
He cautioned that the real work of government had just begun, given the deep political polarisation within Polish society.
Commenting on X, Prime Minister Tusk, who has forged a pro-European track, said the next two weeks would decide the future of Poland.
Meanwhile, Nawrocki’s camp emphasised the need to prevent what it described as a “monopoly on power” by the Civic Coalition.
Social issues dominated the campaign trail, with Nawrocki framing himself as a guardian of conservative values, while Trzaskowski drew support from voters for his pledges to back abortion and LGBTQ rights.
Both camps are now focused on mobilising supporters and appealing to the voters of the likely eliminated candidates as the decisive run-off seems likely.
The president in Poland wields the power to veto laws, so the winner will have direct influence over whether Tusk’s pro-EU government can implement its agenda. Foreign policy, judicial reform and civil rights are all at stake.
A Trzaskowski victory in the second round could enable Tusk’s government to implement an agenda that includes rolling back judicial changes introduced by PiS that critics say have undermined the independence of the courts.
However, if Nawrocki wins, the impasse that has existed since Tusk became prime minister in 2023 will continue.
Portugal
In Portugal, the parliamentary election saw the governing centre-right Democratic Alliance (AD), led by Prime Minister Luis Montenegro, take 89 seats in the 230-seat parliament, well short of 116 needed for a majority. The party garnered 32.7 percent of the vote.
The Socialist Party (PS) and the far-right Chega party finished even in second place, both securing 58 seats. The Socialists suffered significant losses compared with the previous elections, prompting party leader Pedro Nuno Santos to resign.
With the results of several seats yet to be called, Chega might emerge as the main opposition party. Chega, which ran on an anti-immigration platform, won a record 22.6 percent of the vote, an impressive rise from the 1.3 percent it received in its debut election in 2019.
“We didn’t win these elections, but we made history,” Chega leader Andre Ventura told the AFP news agency.
“The system of two-party rule in Portugal is over,” Ventura, who is a former sports commentator on television, said.
Chega’s surge, meanwhile, underscored the growing traction of far-right politics in Portugal, while the Liberal Initiative (IL) also made gains, securing nine seats.
“The people want this government and this prime minister,” Montenegro told his cheering supporters after the results were announced.
But even with the backing of the upstart business-friendly party IL, the AD would still need the support of Chega to pass legislation.
For his part, though, Montenegro, a 52-year-old former lawyer, has refused any alliance with the anti-establishment party, saying it is “unreliable” and “not suited to governing”.
The vote was dominated by inflation, housing and immigration issues.
The vote’s outcome raises the prospects of legislative gridlock or the need for ad hoc agreements on key policies, which would complicate an already tricky political backdrop in the country of 10.6 million people.
Sunday’s election, the third in as many years, was called after Montenegro failed to win a parliamentary vote of confidence in March.
He was forced to call the snap election after the opposition questioned his integrity over the dealings of his family’s consultancy firm. He has denied any wrongdoing.
Montenegro’s government will need to carefully navigate policy priorities and build consensus across party lines, all while trying to maintain public trust and address persistent economic and social concerns.
