Welcome back to Foreign Policy’s Situation Report, where we’re still reeling from the whiplash of the last several days, from the public spat between U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and subsequent fallout to the imposition and then almost immediate partial pausing of hefty tariffs on the United States’ three biggest trading partners. Interesting times here in Washington.
Alright, here’s what’s on tap for the day: The various proposals for postwar governance in Gaza, the United States stops sharing intelligence with Ukraine, and hundreds of U.S. diplomats take a stand on USAID.
One of the biggest questions looming over the fragile Gaza cease-fire is who will govern and rebuild the enclave once the war is over. Providing an answer to this question is crucial to reaching a permanent cease-fire and long-term peace in the region. Without a plan in place for the “day after” that satisfies both Israel and Hamas, it’s difficult to imagine a scenario in which either party makes a serious commitment to stop fighting.
Trump, Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid, and Egypt have all made proposals on postwar governance in Gaza since the cease-fire began in January. The latter two proposals—particularly Cairo’s—were largely spurred by Trump’s plan, which is highly controversial and has been condemned across the world.
Here’s a breakdown of the three plans.
Trump’s plan:
Calls for permanently removing all Palestinians from Gaza and resettling them in Jordan and Egypt, where they would live in newly built “beautiful” and “safe” communities. If Egypt and Jordan don’t agree, Trump said he “would conceivably withhold aid” from the countries.
The U.S. would then “take over” Gaza and assume responsibility for cleaning up and rebuilding the enclave, turning it into “the Riviera of the Middle East” where “the world’s people” would live.
Trump initially left open the possibility of U.S. troops being involved but later walked that back.
Hurdles to Trump’s proposal: Though Israel has responded positively to Trump’s proposal, it’s been forcefully rejected by Palestinian leaders and America’s Arab allies. Some critics say he’s effectively advocating for ethnic cleansing and emphasize that his plan would violate international laws surrounding forcible displacement and annexation.
Trump’s proposal would also fundamentally undermine the Palestinian goal of establishing an independent state and would undoubtedly threaten his desire to see Saudi Arabia normalize relations with Israel. Riyadh has been clear that it will not establish formal diplomatic ties with Israel without Palestinian statehood, calling the issue nonnegotiable.
Lapid’s plan:
Dubbed the “Egyptian solution,” the Israeli opposition leader’s plan would see Egypt assume control of Gaza’s internal civilian and security affairs for eight to 15 years.
His plan envisions Egypt spearheading a peace force in partnership with Gulf states and the international community “for the management and rebuilding of Gaza.”
Under Egypt’s guardianship, Gaza would be demilitarized and the foundations for its eventual self-governance would be laid.
To incentivize Cairo, the international community and regional allies would pay off Egypt’s $155 billion of foreign external debt.
The plan leaves the door open for the Palestinian Authority (PA) to become involved in governance.
Lapid’s plan doesn’t call for permanently removing residents from the territory, but Palestinians who want to leave Gaza would be allowed to do so.
Hurdles to Lapid’s proposal: When Lapid unveiled his proposal in Washington in late February, he conceded that he hadn’t consulted Egypt about it. Egypt has since rejected the plan as “unacceptable.” Without Cairo on board, this proposal is dead in the water.
Egypt’s plan:
At a summit in Cairo this week, Arab countries approved Egypt’s $53 billion plan to rebuild Gaza over the course of five years with three phases.
The initial phase would focus on cleaning up debris and unexploded ordnance, with the next two phases focusing on rebuilding housing and bigger construction projects.
The proposal includes ambitious infrastructure projects, including building hundreds of thousands of homes, an airport, and a seaport.
Hamas would cede power to a committee of politically independent technocrats. This committee would temporarily manage Gaza and pave the way for a reformed PA to take over.
Palestinians would not be required to leave during reconstruction; instead, temporary housing would be built for them to live in during the process.
The plan also calls for the U.N. Security Council to establish a peacekeeping force in Gaza and the occupied West Bank.
Egypt and Jordan would train a Palestinian police force.
The plan endorses a two-state solution.
Hurdles to Egypt’s plan: The United Nations and EU have expressed support for the proposal, but the Trump administration and Israel swiftly rejected the plan, which doesn’t explicitly call for Hamas or other militant groups to disarm.
The PA is also widely seen as corrupt and unpopular and would likely face challenges in establishing legitimacy in Gaza. Israel has also rejected the PA playing a role in Gaza’s future governance.
Additionally, it’s not clear precisely which countries would provide the billions in funding needed to carry out this proposal.
The biggest obstacles shared by all the proposals. None of these plans can move forward if the tenuous cease-fire in Gaza falls apart and fighting resumes. The cease-fire is currently in limbo after the initial six-week stage expired this past weekend with no agreement in place to begin the second phase. There are now serious concerns that the truce will collapse.
Israel is blocking aid from entering Gaza as it pressures Hamas to accept what Israel says is a U.S. proposal to extend the first phase of the cease-fire and ramp up the release of hostages. Hamas is accusing Israel of trying to collapse the cease-fire agreement.
Meanwhile, Trump on Wednesday issued a new ultimatum for Hamas, calling on the militant group to release all hostages now or “it is OVER for you.” Trump warned Hamas that he’s “sending Israel everything it needs to finish the job” and urged its leaders to leave Gaza “while you still have a chance.”
The fact that Hamas still controls much of Gaza also remains a major challenge to any reconstruction plan. Israel and the United States are fervently opposed to the militant group retaining authority in Gaza. But removing Hamas from power has proven to be a difficult task. After well over a year of devastating fighting that’s left much of Gaza in ruins, Hamas is diminished but not defeated.
Basem Naim, a senior Hamas official, recently told NBC News that Hamas would be willing to “step back from governance to hand it over to a body, a government, a committee.” But Naim said Hamas would not lay down its arms until an independent Palestinian state is established, a prospect that’s not on the table at the moment (the current Israeli government is opposed to Palestinian statehood).
The escalating Israeli military operation in the occupied West Bank also poses a potential obstacle to the process. Critics warn that the operation, which has displaced tens of thousands of Palestinians, is inflaming tensions and undermining the already flimsy cease-fire. All of this means that the future of the region remains incredibly uncertain.
The latest Trump appointee confirmed by the Senate:
Linda McMahon as education secretary
What should be high on your radar, if it isn’t already.
Hamas outreach. The Trump administration has been holding talks with Hamas over the release of U.S. hostages in Gaza, the White House confirmed on Wednesday. These unprecedented discussions break from long-standing U.S. policy against direct communications with groups designated as terrorist organizations.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters on Wednesday that Trump believes the talks with Hamas are a “good-faith effort to do what’s right for the American people.”
The White House said Israel was consulted on the talks. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said that Israel “expressed its stance on direct talks with Hamas” in communications with the U.S., without providing further details.
Ramping up pressure on Kyiv. The Trump administration on Wednesday announced that it has stopped sharing intelligence with Kyiv, including targeting information Ukraine uses to strike Russian targets. The move is part of the escalating fallout from the contentious White House meeting between Trump and Zelensky last Friday.
The U.S. also suspended military aid to Ukraine this week as the Trump administration makes a rapid push to end the country’s war with Russia. Trump has accused Zelensky of hampering peace efforts. The Ukrainian leader maintains that he’s not opposed to peace, but he has emphasized his country’s need for security guarantees as part of any deal. The Trump administration has indicated that both aid and intelligence sharing could resume once the U.S. president believes Zelensky is making a serious effort toward peace.
“President Zelensky put out a statement that said, ‘I am ready for peace, and I want President Donald Trump’s leadership to bring about that peace,’” CIA Director John Ratcliffe said on Fox Business on Wednesday, adding that the pauses on “the military front and the intelligence front” will likely “go away.”
Critics of Trump say the president has effectively sided with Russian President Vladimir Putin and strengthened the Kremlin’s position in any forthcoming talks on ending the war.
Rubio faces dissent. Hundreds of U.S. diplomats have signed onto a formal letter of protest to U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio criticizing the Trump administration’s effort to gut the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID). The letter, which has reportedly been signed by over 700 diplomats, warns that the move threatens national security and benefits U.S. adversaries such as Russia and China.
“The dismantling of USAID programs endangers American personnel, diplomats, and military forces overseas,” the writers of the letter state, per Bloomberg. “In regions where the U.S. retracts, strategic competitors such as China and Russia step in, using economic leverage to extract political concessions and expand authoritarian influence.”
Democratic Rep. Al Green of Texas shouts out as U.S. President Donald Trump addresses a joint session of Congress at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., on March 4.Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
Sunday, March 9: The Canadian Liberal Party is set to choose Justin Trudeau’s successor as party leader.
Monday, March 10: Zelensky is set to visit Saudi Arabia.
Tuesday, March 11: Greenland is scheduled to hold early parliamentary elections.
Wednesday, March 12: A meeting of G-7 foreign ministers is due to begin in Quebec.
“Knob.”
—West Australian Premier Roger Cook on Tuesday in response to a reporter who asked him to finish the sentence “J.D. Vance is a…” Cook later apologized for referring to the U.S. vice president in this manner.
A 32-year-old man in Florida allegedly stole and then swallowed two pairs of diamond earrings from Tiffany & Co. worth nearly $770,000 moments before being arrested by police in Orlando. The man, Jaythan Gilder, reportedly gained access to the jewelry after telling a Tiffany & Co. employee that he was representing an Orlando Magic basketball player interested in purchasing the items. He then grabbed the earrings and made a break for it.
After Gilder’s arrest, police released an X-ray that appeared to show what they believe to be the diamond earrings inside his abdomen. Police must now wait to “collect” the Tiffany earrings until after they have “passed.” We wish them luck.
